Dear Orpheus,

I must write to congratulate the great call today on Nifty. The Primer and the 3-3-5 structure really helped take a call. Didnt trade the last down move. Luckily, forced myself to go long mid-day as the move down wasnt fast enough, plus Dollar Index had gone back again. Moreover, there was advanced news of US Retail sales data (to be reported on Thursday) that is supposed to be positive.

Bob says 992.4 on S&P is the number to look for the wave down. The current rally should end at Dow at 9700 or 10334. That should be the peak according to EWT.

Remember Jan22, 2008. What if markets decide to correct in the expiration week? The bears have taken a lot of beating in the last 3-4 months expiry week. I guess its time for revenge. :) Am i day dreaming?? Lets see.

Thanks for the feedback and observations Ashish. It's a pity we don't have a sentiment indicator for India, would be interesting to see percentage bulls and bears in India. We do a sentiment survey for Romania and % bulls suggest limited upside potential. We want to extend the survey for India, could you get some brokers interested to respond on a daily basis.

Sure, happy to be of help.

Just to understand it better, any criteria on selection of brokers. The ones i talk to are say youngsters (25-32 year olds) who work for top broking firms (volume wise) such as ICICI, Kotak, India Infoline, etc. They execute orders from retail clients, give their own view on the markets. The view is ok, 50-50 at best. You cant make money from their views consistently.
Let me know

The retail sales data was a classic case of Buy the rumor, sell the news. Got out on time.

If we can get 300 members from the broking community responding to a survey we can have some valuable sentiment data.

Will try my best but cant promise 300.

Meanwhile, here is an interesting blog and an interesting co-relation between monthly mortgage rate resets and s&P. Dont know what the correlation but thought will share with you.

http://evilspeculator.com/?p=10114